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Visualizing Your Success Could Cost You the Race
Naming what will predictably go wrong may sound pessimistic, but it doubles your odds of reaching the finish line.

Over the years, I’ve spent a great deal of time doing guided meditations where I visualize the future I want. But this morning, as I came out of my meditation, I remembered a fascinating line of research that made me wonder whether all my vivid imaginings might be quietly working against me.
This research shows that the more we fantasize about achieving a challenging goal, the less likely we are to take a real-life step toward accomplishing it.
Daydreaming about our success is relaxing, but it isn’t energizing. When we envision ourselves hopping off the couch and going for a run, our brain reacts as if we’ve already gone for that run. Psychologists call this “mental attainment,” and it can thwart us as we attempt to get into good habits.
This is not an argument against believing in yourself. Expecting to succeed, based on your actual track record, predicts more effort and better outcomes. Believing you can do it and recalling times you’ve been successful before help. Daydreaming about having done it already doesn’t.
Fortunately, related research shows us exactly what to do to avoid this surprising brain booby-trap. We need to follow up our resolution or goal-setting with what researchers call “mental contrasting.” Here’s how.
Step One: Name What Will Get in Your Way
Start with the outcome you want, and let yourself picture it fully. That part matters: mental contrasting only works when the wished-for future and the obstacle are held up against each other. Then, ask yourself what stands between you and that future.
Obstacles tend to come in three flavors:
Environmental obstacles litter the settings in which we live our lives: the junk food on the kitchen counter, the gym that’s too far away, the phone plugged in by your bed that dings while you’re trying to sleep.
Interpersonal obstacles can be formidable. Though also in our environment, these obstacles take the form of other people. Maybe you need support from a leader at work. Maybe it’s the friend who really doesn’t want you to quit drinking, or the spouse who always wants a burger for dinner.
Internal obstacles are often the hardest to see. They are the things within us that hold us back: old habits; emotions like fear, frustration, or boredom; and limiting beliefs, such as the thought that you’ll never be able to get in shape. Maybe you’re afraid to ask that leader for support. Maybe you shop while hungry, and you’re the one bringing junk food into the house. Maybe you just don’t feel like doing the thing you intend to do.
Anxiety, exhaustion, and overwhelm are common internal obstacles. So are self-criticism and perfectionism.
As you list the obstacles you’ll predictably face, be specific and be kind to yourself: the goal is an accurate list, not an indictment.
Once you have a list, ask yourself: Are these obstacles surmountable? If they aren’t, rewrite your goal so that you have a good chance of succeeding.
Step Two: Make a Plan
What will you do in the face of these obstacles? Frame each plan as an IF/THEN sentence. For example:
- IF it rains, THEN I will still walk the dogs and use the umbrella in the front hall.
- IF I feel anxious about asking my manager for support, THEN I will remind myself of the times when she has said that she is happy to help.
- IF I start to feel too overwhelmed to get started, THEN I will close all open browser windows, close all my apps, turn off my phone, and focus on one thing at a time.
This is called an implementation intention, and across 642 independent tests, making a specific plan for what you’ll do and anticipating obstacles where possible, dramatically improved follow-through. The average person who makes a specific plan performs better than roughly three-quarters of those who don’t.
Step Three: Re-Plan When It Doesn’t Work
You will encounter obstacles you didn’t anticipate, and you won’t do what you intended. When that happens, recovery won’t come from trying harder tomorrow. Instead, add the obstacle you didn’t plan for to your list, and write an IF/THEN plan for it. A missed day is information about your planning, not evidence about your character.
You don’t need to save this practice for a big goal-setting session; it works for small tasks, too. Sometimes, when I’m overwhelmed or feeling stuck, I use this technique to start my workday: I jot down a problem I need to solve or something I’d like to accomplish, note what is likely to hold me back, and make an IF/THEN plan.
So what about my visualizing meditations?
I’m not giving them up. Sitting with a clear picture of the life I want isn’t a problem; it’s how I know what to aim for in the first place. But I’ve started doing something different when I open my eyes. Instead of getting up and going about my day still warm from the picture of myself succeeding, I ask myself what stands between me and that future, and I write down one IF/THEN plan.
The vision tells me where I’m going. The obstacle tells me what to do on Tuesday.
Every Thursday, I post a research-based essay about how to live well in body, brain, and spirit. No supplement links, no 2+ hour podcast, and no promise that you’ll make it to 120. If that’s the kind of well-being you’re after, subscribe.
Research References
Fantasizing about future success:
Oettingen, G., & Mayer, D. (2002). The motivating function of thinking about the future: Expectations versus fantasies. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 83(5), 1198–1212.
Positive fantasies and energy:
Kappes, H. B., & Oettingen, G. (2011). Positive fantasies about idealized futures sap energy. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 47(4), 719–729.
If/then planning (implementation intentions):
Sheeran, P., Listrom, O., & Gollwitzer, P. M. (2025). The when and how of planning: Meta-analysis of the scope and components of implementation intentions in 642 tests. European Review of Social Psychology, 36(1), 162–194.




